Slope Stability Effects of Fuel Management Strategies—Inferences From Monte Carlo Simulations1
نویسندگان
چکیده
2Research Hydrologists and Computer Specialist, respectively, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Arcata, California. Abstract: A simple Monte Carlo simulation evaluated the effect of several fire management strategies on soil slip erosion and wildfires. The current condition was compared to (1) a very intensive fuelbreak system without prescribed fires, and (2) prescribed fire at four time intervals with (a) current fuelbreaks and (b) intensive fuelbreaks. The intensive fuelbreak system caused a slight increase in soil slip erosion and a reduction of about 12 percent in average annual wildfire area associated with each of the prescribed fire intervals. All of the prescribed fire strategies greatly reduced wildfires, but resulted in substantial increases in soil slip erosion, with the greatest increase, 282 percent, for the 15-year prescribed fire interval.
منابع مشابه
Uncertainty of the Soil–Water Characteristic Curve and Its Effects on Slope Seepage and Stability Analysis under Conditions of Rainfall Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method
It is important to determine the soil–water characteristic curve (SWCC) for analyzing slope seepage and stability under the conditions of rainfall. However, SWCCs exhibit high uncertainty because of complex influencing factors, which has not been previously considered in slope seepage and stability analysis under conditions of rainfall. This study aimed to evaluate the uncertainty of the SWCC a...
متن کاملA New Stability Approach using Probabilistic Profile along Direction of Excavation
Estimation of the possible instability that may be encountered in the excavation slope(s) during the planning and application steps of the rock excavation processes is an important issue in geoengineering. In this paper, a modelling method is presented for assessing the probability of wedge failure involving new permanent or temporary slope(s) along the planned excavation dir...
متن کاملUncertainties due to Fuel Heating Value and Burner Efficiency on Performance Functions of Turbofan Engines Using Monte Carlo Simulation
In this paper, the impacts of the uncertainty of fuel heating value as well as the burner efficiency on performance functions of a turbofan engine are studied. The mean value and variance curves for thrust, thrust specific fuel consumption as well as propulsive, thermal and overall efficiencies are drawn and analyzed, considering the aforementioned uncertainties based on various Mach numbers at...
متن کاملReliability Analysis of Slope Stability using Monte Carlo Simulation and Comparison with Deterministic Analysis
Traditional slope stability analysis is limited to the use of single valued parameters to analyze a slope‟s characteristics. Consequently, traditional analysis methods yield single valued estimates for factor of safety of a slope‟s stability. However, the inherent variability of the soil characteristics which affect slope stability indicates that the stability of a slope is a probabilistic rath...
متن کاملEfficient System Reliability Analysis of Slope Stability in Spatially Variable Soils Using Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) provides a conceptually simple and robust method to evaluate the system reliability of slope stability, particularly in spatially variable soils. However, it suffers from a lack of efficiency at small probability levels, which are of great interest in geotechnical design practice. To address this problem, this paper develops a MCS-based approach for efficient evalua...
متن کامل